The IGAD states recently dispatched their chiefs of staffs to meet with the SPLA High Command. In that meeting the SPLA was formally informed that IGAD politicians have decided to deploy forces to intervene in South Sudan. Hinting that the decision might be unilateral, the chiefs told the SPLA that they had come to initiate dialogue on how to go about implementing deployment of their forces.

The SPLA rejected outright intervention of IGAD militarily sighting simple matters of sovereignty. Others might argue that they helped us during our war of independence therefore they are entitled to intervened. It is well that they might have helped but back then we were not a sovereign state but rebels. In addition, they used us to achieve a foreign policy objective against Khartoum and we used them to separate from Khartoum.

Now that we are a sovereign nation, no regional country should feel self-righteous in our affairs lest they ignite the region. It is true that indeed South Sudan has been having problems since its inception. Some of these problems are exacerbated by some of these regional countries that have now turned around and want to "fix" us. 

Corruption is endemic, most of the stolen money ends up in Uganda and Kenya both who have done zero to help recover these stolen funds and stem this habit. The proceeds of corruption in South Sudan play a vital play in some sectors of their economies hence the reluctance. Khartoum has been arming a succession of militias including the current ones tearing the country apart to destabilise South Sudan since time immemorial. Ethiopia is faring no better than South Sudan with a series of ethnic conflicts, Somalia and the threat of ever looming war with Ertirea tying down its military forces in the north. However, this does not excuse the failures of our leaders who have collectively been looting the country since 2005 and killing civilians. The ultimate responsibility rests with them but the region cannot claim a higher moral ground for it has failed too.

The idea that military intervention will fix South Sudan is shortsighted. Not only will people quickly get deluded with foreign forces as they stay longer but disenfranchised South Sudanese will take up arms. Any forceful unilateral military intervention in South Sudan without the agreement and approval of the government of South Sudan is a hostile invasion. There is a passionate debate within the army that risks fracturing it. I'm with the group that says the SPLA should respond to any unilateral intervention by IGAD with full force and must engage any incoming enemy forces. A nation is above all.

It is unlikely that Ethiopia, Kenya and Rwanda, who are the most hawkish about this plan can sustain a prolonged war with the SPLA far away from their home bases. Uganda is unlikely to go against South Sudan with President Museveni having clearly expressed his opinion that any foreign military in South Sudan should be providing protection only to Riek Machar and its mandate should not go beyond that. The Kenyan army is stretched with forces in Somalia, North Eastern Kenya and other peacekeeping commitments. The Ethiopian forces are stretched too with the buckle of the forces stationed near the Eritrean border, Oromo, Ogaden and in Abyei. They cannot sustain multi wars without wrecking their economies and political foundations. The Rwandan army is slightly in a better position but it too cannot wage war for long in South Sudan. 

There are already over 12,000 foreign troops in South Sudan. There should be no more foreign troops on our soil. The best option for everyone with minimal risk of confrontation between the SPLA and IGAD invasion force is to change the mandate and rules of engagement of the current forces. They should be changed and expanded to enable them to protect civilians in their bases better and a portion of these forces already in South Sudan should be turned into Riek Machar's protection force.

There is little appetite for a regional war. However, the extent to which South Sudan is ready to stop this intervention should be only underestimated at the risk of a wider regional conflict. There are various factions within the SPLA most of whom are unhappy with the idea. It is anyone's guess how long they can be kept under control should this silly idea come fruition.